Windy rainstorm to wash away summerlike mid-October warmth

An unusual tropical blend of unseasonable warmth and humidity is making mid-October feel more like mid-June, but a wet and windy storm system should bring a gradual return to more normal weather over the next several days.

The rainstorm advancing slowly on the Berkshires from the Great Lakes could drench the region with at least 2 inches of rain following a prolonged, mostly dry spell, according to meteorologist Huge Johnson at the National Weather Service in Albany, N.Y. Thunderstorms with gusty winds of 40 to 50 miles per hour are also possible on Thursday, a rarity at this time of year.

Wednesday’s pre-dawn low of 66 at Pittsfield Municipal Airport was the warmest minimum on record for the date, shattering the previous low of 62 set in 1954. The normal low for Oct. 15 is 38, with a high of 58. Strong southerly winds funneling moist air from the tropics were responsible for the off-the-charts mild air, said Johnson.

Rivers and streams should easily handle the expected heavy rainfall, he pointed out, since they have been running low during abnormally dry conditions since late August.

But loose leaves on roadways could cause slick driving conditions.

“The rain can overwhelm storm drains, especially those blocked with fallen leaves,” AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski stated.

The last soaking downpour of an inch or more in Pittsfield was recorded on Aug. 22. Since then, there have been several moderate rainfalls, but precipitation has been less than half the normal level since Aug. 1, according to the National Weather Service’s airport records.

Thursday’s strong winds and the heavy rainfall expected to begin before dawn, should put the finishing touches on what has been a spectacular fall foliage season, Johnson said.

Despite the reprise of near-summerlike warmth, the winter weather season starts in less than six weeks. AccuWeather.com’s updated outlook, released on Wednesday, calls for a surge of cold air into the Northeast around Thanksgiving.

But the most severe cold and snow is expected to hold off until January and February, according to the long-range forecast. An encore of last winter’s extreme cold is not likely, according to forecaster Paul Pastelok.

Nevertheless, several blasts of Arctic air, dubbed by some meteorologists as the “polar vortex,” may hit the Northeast during those two months. Higher-than-normal snow totals also are expected in western Massachusetts. Average winter snowfall, as measured at the Pittsfield Airport, is 76 inches.

Fall foliage season shaping up as spectacular in the Berkshires

With splashes of color already dotting Berkshire landscapes, the tourism-rich fall foliage season is shaping up as vibrant for admirers of nature’s paintbrush and for hospitality industry businesses seeking a spurt before winter doldrums set in.

Except for possible light rain from a coastal system on Thursday, forecasters see a prolonged spell of dry, mild weather for the next few weeks, with no killing frosts or major wind-driven rainstorms in sight.

That’s the ideal prescription for a stellar leaf-peeping season, said Mark Paquette, an AccuWeather.com meteorologist.

Farmers and gardeners can also look forward to a prolonged growing season. Sept. 25 is the average date of first frost in Berkshire County, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). No freezing temperatures are anticipated for at least several weeks.

Thanks to a steady flow of mild, Pacific air and the jet stream bottling up cold Canadian air well north of the border, “that dry, mild forecast is in place through early-to-mid October, Paquette predicted during a phone interview from State College, Pa., home of AccuWeather.

“All that spells ideal foliage conditions to a ‘T,’ he commented, adding that “no extreme weather events, such as windswept storms” are on the forecasting horizon.

The primary cause of lackluster fall colors is an extremely dry summer, Paquette explained. Even though rainfall so far this month has totaled only 1.41 inches — less than half of normal — the Berkshires and the rest of New England had plenty of soaking downpours earlier in the summer, he pointed out.

The result: Stress-free, healthy trees likely to offer their peak spectacle on schedule next month, including the prime time of Columbus Day Weekend, Oct. 11-13.

According to the USDA’s Forest Service, a prolonged string of warm, sunny days and cool, crisp but above-freezing nights contributes to the most spectacular color displays.

This produces ample sugar in the leaves during the day, while the cool nights prevents it from escaping, spurring production of pigments turning leaves red, purple and crimson.

 

On the Web:

For fall season information and frequently updated foliage maps:

www.yankeefoliage.com/live-fall-foliage-map/
www.leafpeepers.com/mass.htm
www.accuweather.com

 

Summer’s repeat performance to close by Sunday

 

Call it a summer encore, not that there has been much hot weather since a sizzling week in early July.

The back to work, back to school early-September calendar brings an inevitable end to the vacation season and a few already-visible splashes of fall color.

But the taste of heat and humidity that is enveloping the Berkshires and the rest of the Northeast this week is more typical of mid-summer.

As a result, several potentially strong thunderstorms are possible in the region during the overnight hours ahead of a more pleasant Wednesday, according to meteorologist Neil Stuart at the National Weather Service in Albany, N.Y.

A more seasonable Canadian system advancing from the Great Lakes will clash with the tropical air ensconced over the region, setting the stage for a few storms that could yield heavy rain and strong winds, the outlook stated.

After Wednesday’s cooldown, a surge of warmth is set to return for the end of the week before a return to more typical early-September weather on Sunday. The all-time high for Sept. 5 — 87 set in 1983 — may be approached, if not equaled, on Friday.

Though the current pattern is unusual for this time of year, it’s not unheard of. The all-time high at Pittsfield Municipal Airport — 95 — was set on Sept. 2, 1953, followed by 94 the next day. The National Weather Service record was tied on July 3, 1966.

On Sept. 1, 2010, a high of 90 established a record for the first day of the month.

Warm-weather enthusiasts may welcome the summer like warmth, especially after this season’s remarkably cool August, which saw a high of only 82 on the 25th.

There were no 90-degree days all summer; the high for the season, back on July 2, was a mere 88, during a month that saw 9.23 inches of rain, the fourth wettest of any month since 1938, when Pittsfield Airport records began.

According to AccuWeather’s long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok, an autumnal cold air mass from Canada could end the growing season over the interior Northeast around mid-month.

 

 

Unusual warm spell greets new month, but not for long

Call it a summer encore, not that there has been much hot weather this season since a sizzling week in early July.

Thee early-September calendar brings the inevitable end to the vacation season and a few already-visible splashes of fall color. But the taste of heat and humidity that is enveloping the Berkshires and the rest of the Northeast this week is more typical of mid-summer.

As a result, several potentially strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in western New England late on Tuesday, especially after dark, according to meteorologist Paul Caiano of WAMC Northeast Public Radio and WNYT Channel 13.

A slightly cooler air mass advancing from the Great Lakes will clash with the heat and humidity, setting the stage for storms that could be more numerous and powerful on Wednesday, Caiano stated.

After a slight respite on Wednesday, an even stronger surge of warmth is set to return for the end of the work and school week before a cooldown by Sunday. The all-time high for Sept. 5 — 87 set in 1983 — may be equaled.

Though the current weather pattern is unusual for the time of year, it’s not unheard of. The all-time high at Pittsfield Municipal Airport — 95 — was set on Sept. 2, 1953, followed by 94 the next day. The National Weather Service record was tied on July 3, 1966.

On Sept. 1, 2010, a new record high of 90 was set for the first day of the month.

Warm-weather enthusiasts may welcome the burst of unseasonable warmth, especially after this summer’s remarkably cool August, which saw a high of only 82 on the 25th.

There were no 90-degree days all summer; the high for the season, back on July 2, was a mere 88, during a month that saw 9.23 inches of rain, the fourth wettest of any month since 1938, when Pittsfield Airport records began.

According to AccuWeather’s long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok, an autumnal cold air mass from Canada could end the growing season over the interior Northeast around mid-month.

New climate change reports bode ill for the planet

 

Welcome to the New Abnormal.

Berkshirites are shaking their heads at the past two months of wild, wacky weather. We’ve had a record deluge of nearly 17 inches since June 1 — that equals about five months’ worth of rain, on average.

While it may be hard to believe, we’ve had a wetter July — in 2009, with 11.5 inches recorded at Pittsfield Municipal Airport, where the U.S. government maintains an automated observation station. The modern record-holder for the most rain in June remains the year 2000, with 8.7 inches.

But, sifting through 75 years of National Weather Service data, we’ve not found a June and July combined total that rivals this year’s.

The flash floods have been frequent, and damaging in spots, as have the intense thunderstorms and even a tornado with 90-mile-an-hour winds that touched down briefly in Dalton last Sunday afternoon. The city of Revere, just north of Boston, had a more severe and destructive twister on Monday morning — extremely rare for that coastal area.

We’ve had unusually cool days this summer, though not caused by a version of the “polar vortex” that hyperbolic TV and online weathercasters claim. There has been a lack of intense or prolonged summer heat — the peak so far was 88 on July 2, with an 86-degree day later in the month. But plenty of tropical humidity and frequent cloud cover has put a damper on normal summertime routines.

No doubt, climate change has had dramatic, and in some cases, unpredictable effects nationally and worldwide. Much of California remains in an extreme or exceptional drought, with a wildfire season now encompassing much of the year instead of late summer.

As a new National Climactic Data Center report found, Planet Earth continues to heat up. June was the warmest on record, based on global averages, and so was May. The center, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), based its findings on data from 2,000 weather stations worldwide. It records go back to 1880.

Of course, local results vary. After a much colder than normal winter, Berkshire County temperatures have been close to average in recent months. The lead scientist for the Climactic Data Center and author of the latest global report emphasizes that global trends often are not reflected in specific areas.

While the Northeast has been spared heat waves and portions of the South and Midwest have been unusually chilly for this time of year, the Arctic and Greenland as well as much of Asia, Africa and South America broke records for warmth in June — more than 30 nations in all.

Some skeptics continue to argue with the overall findings even though they’re based on the conclusions of 425 scientists representing 57 countries, but NOAA’s latest annual report, released last month and available online, carries a great deal of weight and bears up under scrutiny. (See for yourself at www.noaanews.noaa.gov)

“These findings reinforce what scientists for decades have observed: that our planet is becoming a warmer place,” stated NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan. “This report provides the foundational information we need to develop tools and services for communities, business and nations to prepare for and build resilience to the impacts of climate change.”

The detailed report cites a continuing increase in greenhouse gasses, with all-time high levels found at observation stations in Hawaii and the Arctic.

Four separate databanks found that 2013 was somewhere between the second and sixth warmest on record; Australia was definitely the warmest ever.

Surface ocean temperatures continued to rise, as did sea levels. The Arctic had one of its warmest years in the past century and the region’s sea ice continued to erode.

With no action in sight in the U.S. or other major polluting nations such as China and India, the lack of political will to confront climate change will cause much grief in the years to come. But energy conservation is well worth a full-throttle effort while we wait in vain for the Washington gridlock to break.

 

Not again! Another stormy Monday greets the Berkshires

If rainy days and Mondays always get you down, welcome to yet another soggy start to the work week.

A series of pre-dawn storms rolled through Berkshire County, sparking intense lightning and thunder, causing a deluge of more than an inch of rain during a two-hour period in some areas, as well as numerous downed trees, utility lines and flooded roadways.

For some portions of the county, it was the second bout of severe weather in 12 hours. Area police and fire units were kept busy responding to reports of localized flooding and wind damage.

The torrential rain, which followed a fast-moving late-afternoon Sunday storm over central and southern portions of the county, prompted the National Weather Service in Albany, N.Y., to issue a flood advisory because the ground is saturated from nearly two months of far above-average rainfall.

Minor flooding of urban and low-lying areas was occurring, the advisory stated, adding that some roadways may be overwhelmed with runoff, causing dangerous driving conditions.

Dalton was especially hard hit by the fast-moving storm on Sunday, as high winds caused widespread damage, prompting local officials to declare a state of emergency in order to try to secure federal or state aid.

The official 24-hour rainfall total reported from the National Weather Service’s observation station at Pittsfield Municipal Airport was 1.95 inches as of 7 a.m. Monday, most of it from the early-morning downpour. At Harriman and West Airport in North Adams, 1.28 inches were measured during the same period.

Weather spotters for Channel 6 in Schenectady, N.Y., reported 3.21 inches of rain had fallen in Pittsfield, 2.2 inches in Lanesborough, a half-inch in Savoy and 0.41 inches in Clarksburg.

On top of the 7.55 inches of rain recorded at the Pittsfield airport in June — nearly double the average — a total of 8 inches and counting has been measured so far this month. The combined total is approaching a 75-year two-month record for the city, according to long-term government data.

Government and private forecasters predicted more thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible later on Monday as an unseasonably strong system passes through western New England, dragging the leading edge of cooler air with it. There’s a slight risk of more severe storms into the evening, according to the government’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

Looking ahead, Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry but unusually cool for late July, with a return to normal temperatures as well as more showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday. The early long-range outlook continues the possibility of rainy weather for the weekend.

 

Once again, Berkshire targeted for severe weather potential

For the sixth straight week, the Berkshires can anticipate the same weather pattern — several days of possibly heavy rainfall and gusty winds from time to time, accompanied by potentially intense thunderstorms fueled by tropical humidity. The payoff, yet again: True-blue daytime skies with clear overnights, thanks to refreshingly pleasant air from Canada, from Wednesday into the weekend.

“The region could get walloped,” predicted AccuWeather.com meteorologist Henry Margusity, describing the threat covering western New England and nearby New York state until mid-week. The leading edge of cooler air could produce severe storms, most likely on Tuesday, he said in a video posting. Wind damage, hail and even isolated tornadoes are part of the brew.

AccuWeather is predicting 3.5 inches of rain in Pittsfield and South Berkshire, slightly more in North County, by early Wednesday. The two-day total could approach a full month’s-worth if it develops as predicted.

A flash flood watch remains in effect for Berkshire County, eastern New York and nearby Connecticut until 6 a.m. Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service in Albany. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to move through a warm, very humid airmass, the NWS predicted, with torrential downpours and total rainfall up to 3 inches. Higher amounts are possible where storms slow down and remain in place over a specific location.

At times, rain may fall at the rate of more than one inch an hour. Since the ground is already soaked by recent heavy downpours, the flash flood potential is enhanced, according to the government forecasters’ alert that went into effect at 2 p.m. on Monday.

The greatest potential for the heaviest rain was focused on Tuesday, NWS forecaster Kevin Lipton stated.

At Pittsfield Municipal Airport, 10.4 inches of rain have been recorded since June 3, compared to a six-week normal of 6.5 inches. Rivers and streams are running fast and high, forecasters noted, and another period of intense downpours could lead to more runoff damage in lower-lying areas of the county.

Several hard-hit towns in south Berkshire have been shoring up poor-drainage areas to prevent a repetition of washouts during the June 25 storm that dropped four inches of rain — a month’s worth — in about five hours.

Weather records at Harriman and West Airport in North Adams show a six-week total of 7.17 inches, reflecting comparably frequent but less-intense rainfall over North Berkshire, though still significantly above average.

More storms on the radar for Tuesday

Another strong to severe round of thunderstorms is on tap for parts of Berkshire County on Tuesday afternoon and evening, according to AccuWeather and National Weather Service forecasters.

Heat and high humidity will add to the potential for strong winds and heavy rainfall that may cover more territory than the scattershot storms that packed a strong punch in Pittsfield, North Adams and southern Vermont Monday evening, but spared much of the county.

The storms, if they develop as predicted by sunset on Tuesday, could produce heavy rainfall, flash flooding, damaging winds and large hail, said forecaster Hugh Johnson at the NWS office in Albany, N.Y.

“It will be a later show than yesterday [Monday], mostly in the evening into the overnight,” he explained. The trigger for the storms — the leading edge of cooler air — was still out in the Ohio Valley as of mid-morning Tuesday. “It has a long way to go,” said Johnson,” but I can’t rule out a random popup storm in the afternoon.”

Straight-line winds, which can bring trees and utility lines down, are on the horizon — “there’s definitely a potential,” Johnson pointed out. For Berkshire County, he predicted a more organized, widespread line of storms compared to Monday’s outbreak.

From Wednesday evening until late Sunday, a prolonged stretch of dry, pleasant weather is expected thanks to a cooler Canadian air mass slated to arrive in New England.

On Tuesday, afternoon temperatures are likely to top out in the mid- to upper 80s in much of Berkshire County, especially lower-lying valleys. Along with tropical humidity, the stage is set for potentially severe storms moving from northwest to southeast late in the day. Anywhere from an inch to two inches of rainfall during a brief period is possible, forecasters said.

The outbreak over western New England would be part of a storm system affecting more than a dozen states in the Northeast and the Ohio Valley, according to senior meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski at AccuWeather.com. “The afternoon and evening hours are when the strongest thunderstorms will rumble and threaten to cause some damage and hazards to residents,” she stated in her mid-morning outlook.

On Monday afternoon, the Boston area was under a rare tornado warning after a trained National Weather Service spotter in Lynn sighted a funnel cloud in the western sky. A Fenway Park webcam also caught it from a different angle, but no tornado touchdown took place, said Eleanor Vallier-Talbot, an NWS meteorologist in the Taunton office south of Boston.

Images of the funnel cloud were posted on Twitter and other social media sites and went viral. Damage caused by severe thunderstorms was reported from Fitchburg to the North Shore.

 

 

A stormy day on tap for the region, then dry and cooler

A plume of humid tropical air is expected to clash with the slowly advancing leading edge of a cooler, drier Canadian system over the Berkshires late Wednesday, setting the stage for potentially heavy thunderstorms.

Some of those storms could cause torrential downpours and gusty winds, according to meteorologist Hugh Johnson at the National Weather Service in Albany, N.Y. Though pop-up showers could develop at any time, the highest risk of severe weather is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

Slow-moving thunderstorms are expected to be a problem during that period, Johnson predicted. Several microbursts — intense storms with strong winds that can bring down trees and power lines within several minutes — could develop, he added.

After the Canadian air mass pushes through around daybreak Thursday, drier, pleasant conditions are expected right through the weekend, an ideal scenario for the many outdoor activities planned for the Berkshires. Seasonable highs around 80 and overnight lows in the 50s will be accompanied by mostly clear skies and calm winds.

Next week, look for a trend toward above-normal temperatures and increasing chances of thunderstorms, especially on Tuesday, although no all-day washouts are expected by long-range forecasters.

For June so far, National Weather Service records at Pittsfield Municipal Airport reflect temperatures and rainfall very close to normal, with no unusually hot days and only two heavy thunderstorms in portions of the county.

The outlook for the first week of July calls for above-normal temperatures and rainfall throughout the Northeast, according to the government’s Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md.

Government forecasters post flood watch for region

The National Weather Service has posted a flood watch for Berkshire County, southern Vermont, northwest Connecticut extending through Saturday morning.

Forecasters in the NWS Albany office cited the leading edge of colder air moving slowly into the region as the reason for the alert. They predicted heavy rainfall Friday afternoon until dawn on Saturday, with a slight risk of thunderstorms.

Total rainfall could range from 2 to 3 inches, enough to cause minor flooding along the Hoosic River in North Berkshire, The forecasters also warned of potential ponding of water on roadways, and flooding of poor-drainage and low-lying areas. Flash floods cannot be ruled out, they added,